Experts predict that the cost of Christmas dinner will remain stable this year, defying the surge in food prices. Despite a 4.7% increase in overall grocery prices, a turkey and all the accompaniments for a family of four are expected to average £32.46, slightly lower than last year’s £32.57, according to market research firm Worldpanel by Numerator.
Retailers are intensifying promotions to attract Christmas shoppers, understanding that price-conscious families are prioritizing affordability for essential festive foods. The average price of a frozen turkey has decreased by 3.6% to £13.52, with parsnips also costing less than a year ago at 71p for four.
Conversely, prices have risen for several items like cauliflower (up 4.2% to £1.22), carrots (up 5.5% to 52p), Brussels sprouts (up 3.6% to 92p), potatoes (up 1.1% to £1.67), gravy granules (up 5.1% to £2.23), stuffing mix (up 6.9% to 96p), cranberry sauce (up around 10% to 86p for four), Christmas pudding (up 0.8% to £3.34), and sparkling wine (up 1.7% to £6.51 per bottle).
Discount grocer Aldi is maintaining its prices, offering a festive meal for eight at under £12 or less than £1.50 per person until Christmas Eve, including options for reduced-price festive vegetables. Worldpanel by Numerator reports that promotional activity in supermarkets has increased, with over 31% of purchases last month being on promotion.
Fraser McKevitt, the head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, highlighted that retailers are striving to cater to consumer needs during the holiday season, with many households facing financial challenges. Despite rising costs, shoppers are still indulging in smaller luxuries, reflected in the popularity of premium own-label products.
While chocolate prices have gone up by 18.4% compared to last year, consumer demand remains strong for festive treats like confectionery advent calendars and sparkling wine. Online grocer Ocado has achieved a record market share of 2.2%, experiencing a 15.8% sales increase over the past three months, although physical stores are expected to dominate during the busy shopping days leading up to Christmas.
Lidl has made significant market share gains, increasing by 0.5 percentage points to reach 8.1%, while Aldi’s sales rose by 4.1%, maintaining a 10.5% market share. Sainsbury’s saw a 5.1% sales increase, capturing a 16% market share, while Asda continues to struggle with a 4.3% sales decline, holding an 11.5% market share.
Tesco remains the leading player in the industry, with sales growing by 4.7% to nearly £10.2 billion in the three months ending in November, boosting its market share to 28.3%.