Russia’s oil exports through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2026 have surged by nearly 50% compared to last year, with around 20 million barrels shipped to Asia from July to mid-October, according to traders and data analysis.
The NSR connects Russia’s western ports with Asian markets through icy Arctic waters, known for being a more hazardous and costly route. However, this year, it gained appeal due to disruptions in the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Black Sea region, making it a more attractive option.
Rising tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine have led to record-high tanker freight rates, prompting Asian refiners to seek alternatives to U.S. crude oil. This situation has made the higher tariffs for using the NSR, which necessitates an icebreaker’s assistance, more economical compared to the usual Red Sea route to Asia.
For Russia, which oversees the NSR, the route offers a secure alternative to European waters, where tankers carrying its oil have faced detentions this year. Traders’ initial estimates suggest that the volume of Russian oil exported through the Arctic route will increase by an additional five to 10 million barrels by the end of the navigation season.
Gazprom Neft, a major Russian oil company, plans to boost its NSR shipments by approximately 35% this year compared to 2025, as CEO Alexander Dyukov announced in Moscow. Additionally, Russia is set to increase its liquid natural gas (LNG) deliveries to Asia via the NSR, with expectations of a rise following the commencement of Arctic LNG shipments.
During an economic forum in Vladivostok, President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia anticipates doubling cargo turnover via the NSR to 70 million tonnes per year by the decade’s end. The recent inauguration of Rosneft’s large-scale Vostok Oil project in northern Russia has already contributed to the escalating volumes utilizing the NSR.